Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 15.282225 17.428899 19.732307 22.383377 25.345861 28.549849 32.272653
2025-07-27 11.849239 14.723020 18.039940 22.133838 27.032035 32.684618 39.680569
2025-08-03 10.052297 13.203401 17.014832 21.931923 28.071238 35.444705 44.927525
2025-08-10 8.746023 12.077178 16.278981 21.916465 29.223292 38.308507 50.385030
2025-08-17 7.837132 11.303338 15.836880 22.127166 30.542823 41.316423 56.037606
2025-08-24 7.000901 10.516899 15.273390 22.080853 31.456889 43.782479 61.049030
2025-08-31 6.259975 9.771578 14.674756 21.897484 32.115893 45.879461 65.603132
2025-09-07 5.723866 9.257834 14.338186 22.022076 33.161217 48.498148 70.929399
2025-09-14 5.397962 9.017842 14.361081 22.637103 34.899469 52.116398 77.756573
2025-09-21 4.893536 8.452613 13.850668 22.417072 35.394038 53.977593 82.160249
2025-09-28 4.270836 7.639285 12.894782 21.447260 34.701931 54.070653 83.992644
2025-10-05 4.079590 7.508143 12.981732 22.071795 36.419969 57.727952 91.134178
2025-10-12 3.846331 7.292529 12.927259 22.483434 37.854214 61.061567 97.996458
2025-10-19 3.536645 6.917231 12.583912 22.405553 38.513075 63.249037 103.225999
2025-10-26 3.226548 6.509838 12.151271 22.141708 38.842041 64.918154 107.697121
2025-11-02 2.993529 6.219803 11.893962 22.146876 39.593925 67.259459 113.279142
2025-11-09 2.814386 6.012795 11.763114 22.352254 40.674088 70.147229 119.808395
2025-11-16 2.613238 5.744368 11.501317 22.308054 41.323221 72.356540 125.324505
2025-11-23 2.410252 5.452700 11.174062 22.122136 41.711022 74.141798 130.204410
2025-11-30 2.266862 5.267106 11.027954 22.248168 42.634327 76.829433 136.631509
2025-12-07 2.196481 5.225611 11.149824 22.868677 44.448392 81.060582 145.738423
2025-12-14 2.030156 4.965709 10.831625 22.646685 44.744635 82.733272 150.626737
2025-12-21 1.794458 4.531945 10.138875 21.668029 43.616480 81.916064 151.269932